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March 13, 2006
Barreling Towards War
Once more, the world is on path to conflict:
In private meetings, Bush and his advisers have been more explicit.Members of the Hoover Institution's board of overseers who met with Bush, Vice President Cheney and national security adviser Stephen J. Hadley two weeks ago emerged with the impression that the administration has shifted to a more robust policy aimed at the Iranian government.
... Some analysts believe this year will lead to a decision point for Bush whether to use a military option.
For now, Bush and his aides say all options are on the table, but as a practical matter no armed strike is likely until diplomacy has been exhausted. [Washington Post]
What's worrying is that diplomacy has been getting much closer to the point of exhaustion:
Iran rejected an offer from Russia to enrich uranium on its behalf Sunday, closing the door on what had been the most promising diplomatic resolution to international concerns over its nuclear program.... Iran's dismissal "destroys the last and real possibility of a compromise," said Konstantin Kosachyov, chairman of the international affairs committee in Russia's lower house of parliament, the State Duma, the Interfax news agency reported.
"By all accounts, Tehran's decision will seriously radicalize the upcoming debates over the IAEA report in the U.N. Security Council, since trust in Tehran's plans and ambitions has been strongly undermined," he said. [Washington Post]
This is not good.
Are you still angry at the 30sen petrol price hike?
Well, you ain't seen nothing yet.
Posted by aisehman at March 13, 2006 09:30 PM
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Comments
The US in Iraq can't act against Iran without the collusion of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, India and Russia CIS. These countries surround Iran and only a protrated war with an embargo can starve off Iran's military supplies and will to resist. I don't see any country coming to fight alongside the Iranians except for Pakistani tribemen and other international volunteers. Bush made friends with the Indians recently and Russia CIS is fragmented and weakened with internal considerations so the US can do some sabre rattling and limited strikes but an invasion may not on the cards. If Malaysia cannot import higher sulpharic Arabian crude for refining at Port Dickson for our domestic usage while Petronas exports our better grade crude for forex, we can refine our own crude for our domestic market and default on our forward contracts to supply others like Taiwan for USD20 per barrel for money received earlier. We can tell the Taiwanese to use bicycles more like the Chinese Mainlanders and sell them Malaysian bicycles like Raleigh and Rerun etc.
Posted by: thienshingvui at March 14, 2006 09:22 AM
Why can these people use their head correctly? Going to war is a barbaric act!!
Posted by: Zainal A. Kasim at March 14, 2006 10:53 AM
I think you are right, Embargo on Iran is inevitable. However, its because an embargo may be inevitable that OPEC is not reducing supply an inventory is building up. But yes, oil prices should still go up if an embargo happens. However, if the US can pull out troops from Iraq AND pump more oil from Iraq, then Iran may find itself at the losing end of this chess play anyway.
I still don't think US will attack Iran at least not before it starts pulling out of Iraq. The ideal chess play is to embargo, pull troops out of Iraq and then sent them to Iran and even then, it will be a coalition force.
Posted by: bigjoe at March 14, 2006 11:55 AM